Saturday, February 19, 2011

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THIS ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED IN THE DAY ON FEBRUARY 19, 2011

There is a context that makes possible proliferation of demonstrations in the world the way that the wave of youth rebellion 43 years ago expanded from Communist Poland, France and Mexico Republican authoritarian. There are three key factors. The mistreatment of young people subject to higher rates of unemployment, violence and extremely pessimistic expectation of progress and social mobility. An insulting inequality among a handful of very rich and broad masses in severe poverty conditions. The telecoms revolution in television, film and radio and social networking, which has generated several breaks in terms of geographical distance, real-time access to information.

The interaction of these three factors is evident . Youth from all over the world discovering that his lack of opportunities provided there is the same in developed countries than in developing countries, in authoritarian regimes than democratic, in the West than the East. At the same time, seen through such media insulting the rich few and the hype. Several television shows or magazines that celebrate social life are better catalysts wasteful social rebellions than any Communist Manifesto. The political and cultural context for this is social explosions.
There are of course factors accelerators, such as the financial crisis, structural unemployment, the acute food crisis, mediocrity and corruption of the political classes. But above all, are present in a relevant specific routes of popular resistance in each country, in every society.
not only the conditions of misery and oppression explain the demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt. There are a lot of small movements, protests, small-scale repression and many forms of injury to citizens, particularly young people. Given the scale of these events rarely make the news in traditional media, especially when there are restrictions to freedom of expression. It is impossible to understand these insurgencies that map hidden "in the eyes of governments and their security services, which traces the path grievances and more importantly the social learning of people to confront their oppressors.
For example, the 6 April Movement, a group of key young Egyptian revolution, arose from a textile strike some years ago. See Youtube www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrNz0dZgqN8 (INCLUDING IN THIS VIDEO BLOG)
Amamou Slim, Tunisian blogger arrested a few days and then became youth minister of the interim government, said he did coming years preparing the network.
Carlos Monsivais said that those who have mobilized to overcome three obstacles: The apathy, which is the main barrier between the citizen who feels wronged but is not prepared to act against this situation. The fear of ridicule, what will they say, and fear measures against the regime can and has taken against dissidents.
We tend to believe that political regimes are indestructible . The large-scale mobilizations diluted that belief, but the cost in lives is high-more than 300 deaths in the insurgency in Egypt.
What has happened to date in Egypt and Tunisia has been a military coup on High, a popular uprising in base. The demonstrations after a political victory multiply in the field of social demands and the internships are moving slowly towards political reform. Here are two crucial factors: the strategic clarity of the leading group to give up and expand its base of support, and strategic patience by opposition leaders to modulate social pressure.



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